đź”— Share this article An Prediction Market User Earned $436K from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the period preceding President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. But the odds had increased to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the morning of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment right before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Grows Politicians are starting to take note. A bill presented on recently aims to prohibit public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to politics. The industry faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."