Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
